The Derby and The Preakness!

some horse were given very bad rides in the Kentucky Derby..chief of which was Ride on Curlin..which horse was given a god-awful ride by who is now an idiot, Calvin Borel.  the man shud quit racing horses.

anyhow the owners have kicked him off the horse, replacing him with Joel Rosario.  that horse should do much better on saturday.

what caused me to lose all my bets but 1, was the rider of Danza Joe Bravo,...who gave the horse such a bad trip that he finished third..which is an example of the really good quality of the horse. the horse overcame the bad ride to finish in the money.

if Danza goes in the Belmont and his connections change the rider to one of the better ones then Danza would be the horse to beat.

2 examples of really good riding in the Derby came from J R Velasquez #16.. and from Shawn Bridgemohan #17.  just look at how Bridgemohan picked his way through the large field from way back giving his horse a shot.  he finished second but he really had no chance of catching the winner who was long gone.

Velasquez gave his horse a chance to win by keeping him out of harms way.  never once did Bridgemohan or Velasquez encounter traffic, bumped another horse or in any way encumber the horse and prevent it from doing its best.  win or lose that's the way to race horse.

my man Joe Bravo ran Danza into a wall of traffic early into the race, had to check and change course twice.. most harmfully in the stretch, the derby is a mile and quarter but Bravo gave Danza at least 200 extra yards to run by his incompetence

My play will be a superfecta key with Social Inclusion over California Chrome over the rest of the field (eight horses), which will cost $56 at the $1 increment . Hopefully I’ll be able to get some prices underneath; a horse like Kid Cruz comes to mind, as he can sit off the pace and make a late run.

Ride on Curlin may sooprise anywhere in the super.

Castellano has been switched to General A Rod.  with aboard that horse may sooprise as well.  the shorter distance will help.

I admit CC is very hard to beat..but I am looking at the possibilties

I estimate California Chrome’s chances of winning to be about 50%, which means that his morning line odds of 3-to-5 offers poor value and makes him a bad bet even if he is by far the most likely winner. If we ran the race 1,000 times, my handicapping says he would win 500 times, but at 3-to-5 odds, I’d only get back $3.20 each time he won, so I’d have bet $2,000 ($2/race for 1,000 races) but gotten back just $1,600.

how do the big pots impact the payouts?

and are you strictly bet to win..on the nose?

there are many approaches to winning money in a race like this..so many and I know only a few..like betting cheaply to win big but if it comes with the low odds faves you still covered.

the next way I would use..intend to use is to figure out the most likely upset winner and bet that one cheaply in a few bets..super, trifector and exactor..and win on the nose.

now if you strong on the handicapping go through the race and see who that long shot might be.  see the speed of the race, the pedigree and the form..things like horse for course..which s how I figured out Bridgemohan's horse in the derby.  look at riders and their styles. look at rider changes, distance suitability... and most of all look for form...

the final aspect is to look closely at the post parade if you know how a horse looks when it is in from and ready to run a good race.  you saw how Bridgemohans horse looked in the derby post parade...good enuff to eat.  thats  what you looking for.

then you bet the horse that comes out of all that..he could be the fave or your long shot.

the way I look at it Ride on Curlin has a shot tomorrow.  later on I will work through the race to see if I am right. if I figure I am right I will play a super with Curlin on top..with CC /Social Inclusion/repeat/a bunch for 4th place...for not more than 10 bucks.  then a tri same first 3 parts..exactor with curlin on top with the same 2 below ...2 bucks.

so for about 20 I cover many options with my long shot and it all come in bonanza

then if I feel like it I can try to cover myself with a straight win on the fave  to cover myself/40 to to win.  that shud return 70 bucks at 3/5.

or better yet I can put the 40 bucks on my long shot for show.  he is very likely to come in third at big odds which will return a better mutuel that a win on the fave.

so with all the money bet on the race don't look to bet on the fave at 3/5..look to see the best shot for show money by thorough handicapping of the race...and bet him to show and likely go home smiling with a 10$ payment for every 2 dollars bet

a horse like #7 looks easy to dismiss.. and look who is schedule to ride.. Calvin Borel.

this is a cheap horse with a decent pedigree, yet this is a high class filly..or a filly that has run in many high class races... which horse ran a bad race in the Oaks the day before the Derby.

but this horse actually won the breeders cup juvenile filly at SA last november..lost by a nose but won by DQ

and the last time this hrse ran in the Oaks it was trained by Bob Baffert,  now the horse is trained for the first time by Amoss

but why wud Amoss put up Borel? 

and Amos himself does not win many races like this one.  yet the quick turn around suggests Amoss believes Ria Antonia is sitting on a big race.  the last prep on the 11 may was good..and the prepping before the Oaks was super.  so the Oaks might have been a miss step of some sort and is not to be counted against the horse.

but then again Antonia's record suggests she prefers to be second or third not necessarily to win races.  she has won on the woodbine artificial surface but nowhere else.

very interesting inclusion in this Preakness.  this horse can run.  anything is possible with this one.  the post parade is crucial to see if its fit and ready to go



picked up the daily racing form today and saw that the brisnet past performance I used last night on the net was wrong on the post positions.  if you cant slot in the proper numbers ignore this post

and as I check into social inclusion I am going to be very careful about that horse. its connections are troublesome..especially its owner.

and the coach is not very good..a low flying Venezuelan who plys his trade in Florida usually.  at this point I am not so confident in that horse anymore

this race is likely set up for the closers.....

Ria Antonia and Kid Cruz..if they can really run have legit shots

from the outside #10 social inclusion will set a pace that will probably prove too fast.  its the only chance he's got..to go fast to the lead and stay there to the end.

the way Pimlico is configured the outside speed horse has a track advantage.  so Contreras will..must use his speed to advantage from their.

but to his inside #8 will argue and dispute that lead..and there the trouble for the speed may start.

#6 also has speed and must keep up to have any chance.  he may not be quite as fast as  #10 so he will have to be tactical..keep up and try to run past the leaders.

and what do we do with #1 Bayern which s a god horse and has great speed as well?  from inside there he will have to go or loose all chance.  and if he goes from there it will likely cost him the race.  but all that speed can damage the speed

and lest we forget #4 under new ride Castellano also has a lot of speed which again he must use to keep in touch with the race

the favourite looks capable of dealing with any pace Social Inclusion may set but his post position does not help.  we will find out how great he really is if he can track the outside speed and run it down in the stretch from an unhelpful inside post..while keeping off Antonia and Kid Cruz coming late.

coming late also will be R O Curlin for a piece..not the win.

interesting race.  the favourite seems better than the rest but but the race is not setting so much in his favour.  he will have work to do to win and after the Derby does he still have some to give ::confused::

we will see