Guyana has been outfoxed by Venezuela

Despite Venezuela’s claims to two-thirds of Guyana, Guyana was able to broker this valuable rice market. In other words, trade and economic cooperation with Venezuela was taking place. When Burnham failed in 1981 to have the Protocol of Port of Spain renewed, and relations with Caracas were seriously soured, this did not prevent Guyana from buying fuel from Venezuela. There was also consideration being given at one time to have power sold from Venezuela to ease Guyana’s then energy shortfall.

The second major failing was the challenge which Guyana faced in combatting a Venezuelan diplomatic counter offensive within Latin America and the Caribbean. Venezuela launched a diplomatic blitz when Guyana tried to isolate it within Caricom, and Guyana had no response to that blitz, because it did not have the resources or the know-how to respond. Caricom was always going to call for talks and negotiations as a condition of its support for Guyana’s position.
The third mistake that Guyana made was to place all its eggs in one basket. It decided to go for a juridical settlement of the dispute without carefully contemplating how realistic were the chances of success.

The Granger administration has been raising expectations in Guyana about this controversy being settled by the International Court of Justice. The matter, however, is never likely to end up before the ICJ, because Venezuela is not a member of the ICJ and it requires the approval of both parties to a controversy for a matter to go in front of the ICJ. So Guyana is misdirecting its diplomatic efforts – in a direction in which there is little hope.

The Granger administration should never have placed all its eggs in one basket, because if there is no resort to the International Criminal Court, then Guyana ends up with nothing. What then?
Even if some miracle happens and Venezuela decides to take the matter to the ICJ, this is going to cost Guyana a fortune. The lawyers for these cases do not come cheap. Guyana’s legal bills for the maritime dispute with Suriname were hefty and were paid for by CGX. Exxon is not going to pay any legal fees for Guyana. And so what it means is that Guyana is going to be saddled, if per chance the matter goes to the ICJ, with a hefty legal bill which will have to be absorbed by the oil proceeds which are not guaranteed unless production begins.