****South Africa will MULLER the Aussies****

no! 4 down is not the criteria one uses  to judge before a ball is bowled.  one cannot know dat dat would be the case.

the first criteria is the fourth innings..the worst possible place to bat in a test match..historically.  very bad chances here regardless of the great but odd successes that have taken place on that base.

the fourth innings is a must to avoid.  and unless there is great warrant at the start of a game for decision to occupy the fourth it is a must to avoid. 

give it to your opposition.  it is the best place for them to be

MAPPIPPEE,


I hear what you are saying but I thought you were going on to say it was not just about the 4 wickets, when judging the decision, rather being all out for 250.


Anyway some good points but we need to understand this particular pitch. do you have the numbers for both teams batting second and winning and this pitch?

no! I don't have those numbers. 

the individual stats of any pitch should not be decisive anyway, given the completeness of the stats on fourth innings globally/historically

it shud be considered like many other factors of equal weight but shud not decisive. what shud be decisive.

regardless of pitch it is best to reserve the fourth innings for you opposition if at all possible

So why did you suggest Smith made an error?

because batting fourth is a disadvantage.

it does not matter how much the Oz score but batting first has handed them an advantage if they can use in any way reduces SA chances.

it really does not matter how much Oz scores.  lets say hey collapse tomorrow for 350 and get the Saffies out for 300 or less..go back and make 250 and give the saffies 300-310 to make.

I doubt very much deh would make that against the Oz bowling in the fourth with the weight of the games history on them

they may do it but the odds would be seriously against them making those runs.

that is not a disadvantage I would give myself.

as a captain with a side like SA I would not send the Oz in at any time unless the situation on the day ensured I would clean them up with my attack..and that in the same conditions I was good for a decisive lead batting second..obviating my need to bat twice..or to score very little to win batting in the fourth

I agree.

What are these figures?

Quote from MAPPIPPEE, inter alia


No argument brother....

help yourself. pull  them up.  I wont!

I know from memory that they are decisive.  so feel free to make me look bad by quoting actual stats that represent the truth ::LOL::

MAPPIPPEE brother,


You are contradicting yourself.


It is either it matters or it does not.


The stats for this ground has to have credibility as it is fact.


Logically, batting last may be risky because of a wearing pitch but you cannot make that blanket statement as all pitches are different.


If it was a West Indian or Indian pitch I would whole heartedly agree as the pitches are proven to decay over the 5 days.


However you seem so anxious to berate Smith you are not being balanced, in my view.


Anyway I feel as if I flogging a dead horse here so let us focus on a good days cricket.

you are missing the point:

what is the average score in a fourth innings of all tests..complete innings.

I don't believe it is more that 270.

then when you get into the results of fourth innings runs chases it is far worse..

so one can make prelim conclusion like:  no matter what the early scores are the side batting last relatively speaking would be up against it for the last is usually worse than the previous 3 scores

then again what is the likelihood of Morkel, Philander and Stein bowling the Oz out for less than 250 in the first innings.  and now that Kallis is gone what is the likelihood of the Saffies doubling that score making a fourth innings of theirs little less than a formality?

unless the conditions warranted there is no clear and decided advantage by SA over these Oz..especially in the batting.  Amla is not better than clarke and Amla is the best SA got now.  the other Oz matches up well with the rest of the Saffie.. even Smith