Quote:In the first One Day International (ODI) between the West Indies and the visiting Pakistan team at Providence in Guyana, the home side chased down a formidable 308 to achieve a record-breaking victory. It was the first time the Caribbean side had successfully pursued a target of over 300. The players were elated. To their long-suffering fans it was a grand occasion, worthy of celebration. Praise for the team and especially for Jason Mohammad, who essayed a stirring, match-winning innings, gushed effusively.

Expectations were heightened. Suddenly, Caribbean fans began envisioning a new, more competent, more compelling team than the one they had experienced in recent years. Suddenly, it was forgotten that the West Indies has not won a single ODI series in the last four years against teams that were not Ireland or Bangladesh. The 3-0 drubbing by England, which occurred only a few weeks ago vanished into the distant past.

And so the fans that stayed away from the first game in Providence crowded into that same venue only two days later for the second game. Unsurprisingly, they left disappointed. This time, set a smaller target of 283, the hosts folded for 208, losing by a substantial 74-run margin. By the time the run-chase was around 15 overs old, the result was never really in doubt, though captain Jason Holder made a good 68 and Ashley Nurse, impressing again with the bat, smashed 44. Mohammad, the hero of the first game, fell for a single run.

In the aftermath of the loss there have been complaints from fickle supporters, many of whom were lavish in their acclaim after the first game, that the stunning first-game win had resulted in some degree of complacency or cockiness on the part of the players. Perhaps, they argued, the praise had gotten to their heads.

But that is almost certainly not the case. The explanation, rather, is simple and scientific: the team experienced a regression to the mean. It had nothing to do with the praise or overconfidence as some believe. After soaring to the clouds the West Indies were brought back down to earth.