We Shud Get One More Kentucky Derby in Before Amargeddon...Eh? Winner Anyone?

you can get in there Ketchim and compare 2 races to see if your Warhorse has a chance

first on on Feb 23..the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park

that race was run like a 6 furlong spring thought they went a mile and a sixteenth and Orb ran that speed down.  that's a fine achievement.....although the performance i really liked was that of the second place finisher Violence. 

Violence was on that hellacious pace early and battled almost to the end.  that horse has class and will win real money before he is done.

Orb the winner stayed off the pace, took off at the right time as JR..John Velasquez.. knew they would tire and he would pick them off.  yet a horse has to be able to run to do that and ORB can indeed run

the time of the Fountain of youth is...23:11 for the first 2 furlongs
45:45 for the half mile
108:85 for the six furlongs...very fast for a route race
135:57  still very fast for a route
142:24  a very good overall time for 3 year olds at this time of the year

the second race is the Florida Derby on March 30/ ORB wins again

this race is a longer race at a mile and an eight if a mile

it went like this:
24:76
48:56
112:89
137:79
150:87

slower this time Orb was much closer to the pace of the race just outside the speed...then took off and left them all running for whatever they could get behind him.

so here you have a horse that had demonstrated he can run down very fast speeds..and stalk average speeds and run past it.

THE WAR HORSE..JAVA'S WAR IS IT..WILL HAVE THE HELL OF A TIME GETTING PAST ORB WITH HIS ONE RUN.  I D'ONT SEE THAT HE CAN DO IT WITH JR RIDING AND WITH 3 OR 4 SERIOUSLY GOOD OTHERS IN THERE

then there is another like Java in there whom I think is even better than Java at his own game..Normandy Invasion and Charming Kitte.... which horse has one hell of a pedigree and good form going into the race. 

this Charming Kitten is out of the El Prado line which is great for grass but runs well on any surface.  Charming Kittens sire is Kittens Joy out of El Prado who is the son of the very great Saddler's Wells a star of the Northern Dancer line.

Charming Kittens fifth sire is Lear Fan out of the very great sire and racehorse Roberto

then Charming Kitten's female line through dam Iteration is very decent if not great.  but his damsire Wild Again was a great race horse and an excellent sire.  his dams do alright and Iteration passes on enough to her young to give Charming Kitten serious winning atributes.

critically the Derby distance is of no consequence to such a horse.  he gets great stamina from a number of great horses in his lines.  he also gets brilliant speed from Icecapade, Northern Dancer, Hyperion and all the way Back...the great Nearco.

Charming Kitten also comes in with good form running a good race in the Blue Grass on synthetic surface at Keeneland. 

this horse is capable of upsetting the Derby field....running in the tri and superfecta.  this is a better hores that Java's War

Googly shud also note how easy Orb defetaed Frac Daddy in the Fountain of Youth....

Frac Daddy has won nothing and his pedigree is very problematic.  the Frac shud run to form in the Derby..somewhere up the track

anything is possible but I doubt it In the case of this horse

to get real stamina in Java's War pedigree you have to go along way back to horse like Herbager... then further back to Tom Rolfe, Wild Risk and vandale...

modern classic distance influence would be Blushing Groom, Mr Prospector..and the real great up to date influence Rainbow Quest..his damsire who is a powerful stamina influence.

still a lot of brilliant speed influence has seeped into the pedigree which may make it tuff for Java's War at a mile and a quarter and further.

I will keep my eye on him all the way through..never losing sight of him.  he will surely be both my superfecta and tri play..but hardly for the win..or in the win spot

I like Normandy Invasion for the exotics of my plays yet the evidence I am going on may be rather skimpy.

I like how he almost ran down Verrzano in the Wood memorial at Aqueduct.  and I like that out of all the choices he had top Rider Castellano chose Normandy Invasion.  that says something to me.

but if I am concerned by Java's Wars' pedigree I shud be even more concerned by NI pedigree for on the female side it's pure sprint for the first 2 or 3 generations going backwards..before we begin to pick up stamina.  the NI ran in the wood suggest that some stamina has come through the speed and infects hi blood.  he looked so good in the Wood

then again NI's win profile is not good at all...5-6 races and only 1 win at this level is rather poor.  it suggest that he is not all that good..especially for the win....but he has a strong closing kick and could complete triactors and supers at high odds.  that's where I am focused with him anyway.

Excellent review ! 

Revolutionary under new jockey Calvin Borel, a three-time winner of the Derby in his career ??
Javier chose to ride NI !

the real runners at this point look to be:

Orb
Verrazano
Charming Kitten

Goldencents..another whose pedigree makes him suspect at a mile and a quarter and beyond... but who owns a suitable running style.

Revolutionary..a good looking one..another I have not fully checked out yet

overanalyze...haven't made much sense of him yet

Will take charge...strong pedigree for a 1,1/4 mile but is heart palpitations all the way by way of his running style.  Will take Charge stalks, runs into the stretch as if he is going to take the lead and run away, but instead of passing the leader{s} hooks up and runs with him {them} to the wire, poking his head in front at the very last, last, last, last moment.

pheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeew!

I have taken that twice with this horse.  I cant take a third.  so I will be well covered so whatever he does wont bother me

mistake...I will soon add Revolutionary to my list above as a winning potential....although Borel is hardly my fave rider even if he has won 3 times previously.

at this stage I believe Revolution is a better horde than NI and that Castellano likely made the wrong choice.  NI will likely be there at the end third, fourth, fifth but hardly higher

ketchim let me suggest you go into the pedigree query link and bring up the 2 profiles NI and Revolutionary...

now the pink is the female lines and the blue is male

you will see letters in brackets under the horses {GB} means great Britain {FR} France and means only where they were born.  no sign means amercan {Can} means Canada of course.

there are other letters in Brackets {B} means brilliant speed_sprinter...{I] Means intermediate speed and distance...{C} means classic..up to a mile and half, the classic distances.  {S} for solid and {P} for professional..those are the real stamina guys.

then you will see combinations of those letters in brackets...ci or bc or bi etc.  what it means is that the hose under whose name these  bracketed letters fall is a chef de race or a foundation of the breed, one of the major stallions responsible for keeping up the quality of the breed..and the brackted qualities are what they pass on to their lines

what all that does is to help you to tell the stamina, speed and qualities of horses that have not yet run enough to demonstrate what they have.  they are tools of analysis along with the races already run to help come to decent decisions about races under consideration like the Derby.

so it is by that and some other factors I read that NI is not as good as Revolution..who is a winning candidate at this point and NI is not...in my estimation.  but NI raced exceedingly well against one of the best of this group of horses and a top rider chose him over Revolutionary.

but we will see

Could be a Fix as well :

Why would Javier choose Revo instead of NI  ?