We Shud Get One More Kentucky Derby in Before Amargeddon...Eh? Winner Anyone?

these races are not fixed like that...

lots of people put out a lot of money on theses races.  the prizes are huge and compensatory and the desire to win pure..checks and balance in their own right.


with regard to NI and Castellano..he rode the horse and he nearly caught Verrazano in the Wood.

NI was coming strongly to Verrazano,not fading at a mile and an eight.  it suggests that if there were a bit more distance he would have caught Verrazano..or there would be a mighty tussle to the wire between them.

the Wood Memorial on april 6 is right there in the Prep schedule.  click the video link and look at the race yourself.

now based on my reading of NI's pedigree he is not supposed to make a a mile and a quarter easily.  but a mile and a quarter is just an eight of a mile longer than the Wood ..and if was running so strong at the end of a mile and and eight he should make another eight of a mile wouldn't you think.

and in biology..in inheritance and transfer of genes there is always some atavism about...and there is always sundry influences in a pedigree that is not..or cannot ..be accounted for when experts make their predictions on he evidence before them. NI could have inherited stamina from a few forbears when he is not expected to have done so

so when I say NI cant make the distance I leave room to come back.

as I said I am going to put him my tri-actor bet/bets if the odds are right..and superfecta as well.  I will not leave him out.

I do not intend at this stage to put him at the top because I think his win profile is more important than his pedigree in determining whether to play him for the win or not. his is not a winning sort by profile so far.

but by race time I might change my mind

Ketchim:  I looked at the Wood Memorial again..closely and I don't think NI would have caught Verrazano anyway..and wont catch him with the added distance of the Derby.

there was absolutely nutten to stop NI from catching Verrazano if he could..he could not.  he wasn't fading..he was coming but not fast enough. Verrrazano  was being hand ridden by that time..no whip.  Velasquez did not need the whip

I dont see how NI can turn that around to win the derby.  he loves to come second anyway...he is 5 races for 1 win for 2 seconds and a third.  NI's going nowhere with that..regardless of what Castellano does..even if he gets off the horse and runs to the wire himself..ridden by the horse

Somebody likes Normandy Invasion bad {NI}

bleacherreport.com/articles/1615731-kent...vents-top-contenders

this is the Wood Memorial..the race and the NI run they are raving about..that they say demonstrates he can win the Kentucky Derby.  they also claim he got blocked in the race.

well Normandy Invasion is #2 so allyuh watch the race and tell me if this horse was seriously blocked at any point but ran exactly the way his rider wanted him to run.

not at all.  NI had every opportunity to accelerate past the winner if he could....but he could not catch the winnner.

THEN LOOK AGAIN AT THE WINNERS RUN.  HIS JOCKEY...THE EXPERIENCED JOHN VELASQUEZ WAS BEATING THE HORSE UP TO A POINT IN THE STRETCH AND WHEN HE FELT HE HAD ENOUGH HE STOPPED..WELL SHORT OF THE FINISH LINE AND HAND-RODE HIS HORSE HOME EASILY.

IF VELASQUEZ NEEDED MORE THE WINNER, VERRAZANO COULD HAVE GIVEN MORE.  HE WON WELL IN HAND

The more I look at it the more I am convinced...NI is not going to win.  if he comes off the pace he is  going to have Goldencents and Verrazano to deal with. 

if he closes he is going to have the superior Orb to deal with...Orb...who ran down a route that went 1:08 and change for the first 6 furlongs, in the Florida Derby

and if he chooses the front end he has Super99, palace Malice, Mylute, Fallen Sky etc., to deal wit..all super fast horses.

this is not shaping up in NI's favour

2013 Wood Memorial Stakes - Verrazano

at this point the race appears to be setting up for ORB

there is massive speed lined up for the race..especially Super 99.  Goldencents and Verrazano with a Giants pedigree should prevail in the speed up at the top from just off the pace, but will have to fend off Orb at the end...the best of the closers..to take home the prize...

and of the potential upsetters..I will not look  to Palace Malice and and NI but to Charming Kitten.... if he gets in the race.

I dont see that Palace Malice has a chance for more that third or fourth if he keeps his form from the Blue Grass..and runs as good on a dirt track

ANOTHER ONE TO LOOK OUT FOR..........POSSIBILITY


2013 Kentucky Derby Pedigree Profile - Revolutionary
1 fan  1 favorite
 
February 04, 2013 9:40 AM
Revolutionary lived up to his heroic name in the Withers Stakes (G-3) this past Saturday at Aqueduct. Much has been written about the wild trip the Todd Pletcher trainee sustained so we'll skip the details. If you haven't had a chance to see the race, read Matt Shifman's comments and catch the Withers' video on his Horse Racing Nation blog, New York State of Racing.

REVOLUTIONARY (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) was a $250K 2012 OBS March Two Year Old in Training purchase by WinStar Farm after the colt zipped a furlong in :10.20 in the under-tack show. Revolutionary needed four starts to win his maiden. He placed in three previous starts and the light bulb came on in a huge way last December, when he amazed racegoers with an 8 ½ length victory traveling a mile in 1:36.52 over the Aqueduct track. His final time was just a tick off of the track record of 1:35. 79 and it's quite possible that he could have eclipsed it that day if asked. To date, Revolutionary has compiled a 5-2-1-2 ($188,500) race record and ten points in the Derby points system.

Sire:
The well-bred colt is by 2007 Juvenile Champion War Pass, who sired only two crops before his untimely death in 2010. War Pass was a brilliant two year old who entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile undefeated after dominating front-running scores in his debut, an allowance race and the Champagne Stakes. The son of Cherokee run splashed his way to a 4 ¾ length victory in the Juvenile. The following year, War Pass continued his winning ways with a seven length victory in an allowance test, but suffered a shocking defeat in the Tampa Bay Derby after a rough trip. He took one more stab at the triple crown preps in the Wood Memorial, winging it on the front end in his usual style, but War Pass faltered in the stretch, finishing second by a ½ length to Tale of Ekati, a colt he dominated as a two year old. War Pass suffered a foreleg injury during the race and was retired.

War Pass sired 65 foals in his initial crop and he was #13 on the Freshman Sire list of 2012 in terms of earnings. The promising stallion was represented by only 20 runners on the track, yet nine of them won and five were repeat winners. His son Java's War became War Pass' first stakes winner with a victory in the Sunday Silence Stakes and earned graded stakes status in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (G-1). War Pass' offspring have been successful over all surfaces, primarily dirt. Revolutionary is his sire's first winner at 1 1/6 miles. War Pass stood only two years at stud, including a stint in Australia, before his mysterious death right before the 2011 breeding season.

It's difficult to say how far War Pass' progeny will want to run. His sire Cherokee Run was the Champion Sprinter of 1994. Cherokee Run's offspring won stakes races up to 1 1/8 miles and two placed at 1 ¼ miles. His two most prominent sons at stud are Kafwain and Yonaguska. Kafwain sired two stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles, Daisy Devine and The Pamplemousse and one son Don't Forget Gil, placed at 1 ¼ miles. The same for Yonaguska. His offspring win up to 1 1/8 miles. His best son, Musket Man finished third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

War Pass' damsire Mr. Prospector is a Brilliant/Classic Chef-de-race and the second damsire Hoist The Flag is a Brilliant/Intermediate Chef-de-race, so it is not a stretch to say that If War Pass' babies follow in his hoofprints and those of his sire Cherokee Run, they will likely be distance challenged beyond
1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles.

WAR PASS ( Cherokee Run - Vue, by Mr. Prospector)
Race Record: 7-5-1-0 ($1,583,400)

CAREER HIGHLIGHTS:
1st – Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G-1) 1 1/16 miles
1st – Champagne Stakes (G-1) 1 mile
2nd – Wood Memorial Stakes (G-1) 1 1/8 miles


Female Family:
Revolutionary's distaff line traces back to one of the best-producing mares in history, La Troienne. Four Kentucky Derby winners (Sea Hero, Go For Gin, Smarty Jones and Super Saver) have descended from this mare, as did Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer.

Revolutionary's dam Runup The Colors is a product of the Lanes End Farm breeding program. Typical of the progeny of A.P. Indy, Runup The Colors wasn't a precocious juvenile. She won her maiden in her fourth attempt. A year later, she raced at the allowance level four four months before jumping into stakes competition. She was up to the challenge, winning the Delaware Oaks by 1 ½ lengths. Runup The Colors faced a small but competitive group in the Alabama Stakes (G-1), beating Ajina by 1 ¼ lengths and ironically, Runup The Colors' close relative Tomisue's Delight. Unfortunately, that was the last race Runup The Colors won, however, she did place in two other stakes races.

Besides Revolutionary, Runup The Colors bore six other foals to race, two of whom own blacktype. Tafaseel (by Belong To Me) placed in the Jerome Stakes (8F) and Ice Road (by Unbridled's Song) was third in the Ohio Derby (G-3) (9F). Runup The Colors has an unnamed Quality Road yearling and is in foal to English Channel.

Revolutionary's second dam is the blue hen, Up the Flagpole (Hoist The Flag - Garden Club, by Herbager), heroine of the Delaware Oaks. Seven of the eleven foals she bore owned blacktype. Two of the most notable are Flagbird (by Nureyev), European highweight mare and the grand-dam of Ashland Stakes (G-1) winner and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Little Belle. The second noteworthy foal was Prospector's Delite (by Mr. Prospector), who won the Acorn (G-1) and Ashland Stakes (G-1). Prospector's Delite is also a blue hen and is better known as dam of Mineshaft, (Horse of the Year and prominent sire), plus his full sister, multiple Grade 1 winner Tomisue's Delight and full brother stakes winner Rock Slide. A half brother, Monashee Mountain is a multiple Group 3 winner in Ireland. Up the Flagpole also produced King's Bishop hero and sire Top Account (by Private Account) and stakes winners Fold the Flag (by Raja Babba), Allied Flag (by Danzig), Long View (by Damascus) and Kyowa Je T'Aime (by Seattle Slew), a Japanese stakes winner.

Revolutionary's third dam Garden Club ( Herbager – Fashion Verdict, by Court Martial) was also a blue hen. While Garden Club's other progeny were successful producers, none approached the status of the branch established by Up the Flagpole and her daughter Prospector's Delite. Revolutionary's dam Runup The Colors is becoming another top producer from this branch.

RUNUP THE COLORS (A.P. Indy - Up the Flagpole, by Hoist the Flag)
Race Record: 18-6-3-4 ($555,024)

Career Highlights:
1st – Alabama Stakes (G-1) 1 ¼ miles
1st – Delaware Oaks 1 1/16 miles
2nd – Ballerina Handicap (G-1) 7 Furlongs
2nd – Spinster Stakes (G-1) 1 1/8 miles





Damsire:
A.P. Indy, Revolutionary's damsire, has been designated an Intermediate/Classic Chef-de-race, meaning that it is recognized that he passes along stamina to his offspring. Now retired from stud duty, A.P. Indy's status as a racehorse and major stallion is already cemented in history. By a Triple Crown winner out of the daughter of a Triple Crown winner, A.P. Indy earned Horse of the Year status with victories in the Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic. He is recognized worldwide as a sire of sires and his genes live on through his recently deceased son Pulpit, Bernardini, Malibu Moon, Mineshaft, Majestic Warrior, Jump Start and many more.

A.P. Indy is no slouch as a broodmare sire, either, as he's been a top 20 leading broodmare sire for the last seven years. His daughters have produced 160 stakes winners, including the Champion mares Royal Delta and Wait A While, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, and Kentucky Oaks heroine Plum Pretty.

A. P. INDY (Seattle Slew - Weekend Surprise, by Secretariat)
Race Record: 11-8-0-1 ($2,979,815)

Career Highlights:
1st – Belmont Stakes (G-1) 1 ½ miles
1st - Breeders' Cup Classic (G-1) 1 ¼ miles
1st – Santa Anita Derby (G-1) 1 1/8 miles
1st - Hollywood Futurity (G-1) 1 1/6 miles
1st – Peter Pan Stakes (G-2) 1 1/8 miles
3rd - Jockey Club Gold Cup (G-1) 1 ¼ miles

Going back a generation, Revolutionary's second damsire was the Brilliant/Intermediate Chef-de-race Hoist The Flag (Tom Rolfe – Wavy Navy, by War Admiral). The speedy colt received Championship Juvenile honors in 1970. He won all six starts, but was disqualified in the Champagne Stakes. He was a leading sire and broodmare sire during his time at stud.

War Pass was bred to eight daughters of A.P. Indy. To date, Revolutionary is the only starter and winner. There is precedent for this breeding cross. Cherokee Run has 13 foals out of A.P. Indy mares. 11 have started and nine of those are winners. Two, the full siblings Zanjero and Acacia (Cherokee Run - Checkered Flag, by A.P. Indy) own blacktype. Zanjero is a multiple graded stakes winner up to 1 1/8 miles, whose roster of victories includes the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes, Indiana Derby and West Virginia Derby.

Summary:
Revolutionary has a bounding gait, with an excellent, far-reaching stride. The dark brown colt appears to favor his sire in conformation and build. He isn't overly muscular, but has a nicely slanted shoulder, short back and well-shaped, hindquarters. Revolutionary has a classic speed over stamina pedigree and is borderline for 1 ¼ miles. He's shown tenacity and dogged determination to overcome trouble in a couple of his starts, which bodes well should he make it to the bumper-car field of the Kentucky Derby. He's certainly a colt to keep an eye on in future outings. Revolutionary will spend time at Palm Meadows resting up and training towards his next start, which is undecided.[/quote]

this pedigree has led to 4 Derby winners at a mile and a quarter and one winner at a mile and a half.. they are worried about Revolutionary not being able to make a mile and a quarter.

these experts for you eh

Orb, Verazano and Lines of Battle..the 3 best horses in the race...barring sooprises the winner should come from these three..  so I reason at this moment.

goldencents, Charming Kitten, Black Onyx and a few others have delicious pedigrees and are in the running of course...and that O'neill fella who trains Goldencents is a very, very smart trainer.

but I believe in the end the top 3 are better and if the races goes straight they should win the Derby..or rather the winner shud come from among these 3

one way to appraoch a bet in this Derby is to use ORB as your basis....

Play him to win with the 5 or 6 horses you think will contend behind in for second or third...then reverse this bet with ORB in second place

you do the same  for Supers..except in the fourth position you play many more horse...

you don't worry about odds.  there is so much money bet in the Derby that even low odds pay a lot in the combinations of Xactors, Triactors and Supers

it would help a lot of one goes through the card and can definitely eliminate horses from any part of the top 4 to 6 finishers.

even if it can be narrowed down to 10 possibilities then a sound bet can be worked out for bets up to Supers that is bound to pay well.  key is to narrow down..to be able to toss horse that have absolutely no chance of being in the top finishing group