Kentucky Derby 2014

Uncle Sigh and Tapeture ....** sigh ** :-[

my bets for the Kentucky derby

#5 CC or California Chrone to win....second 4 and 20...third 4,20,17

win shot at 9 to 1..#4 Danza

win shot #5

I gave allyuh Sabza to win in a post a few days beck when I asked if a certain fella knew about a horse called Danza.

I figured that only Danza had any realistic chance to beat CC so I put a win bet on him.

number 17 is teh dam horse I played wrong.  I am so pissed.  I should have played it this way ...5 with 17, 20 and 4 with 17,20 and 4.

I just thought that 17 did not quite have the class to run second but he did. 

Commanding Curve has the pedigree to run long.  his connections will prolly keep him out of the Preakness {race too short} and send him in the Belmont.  he should be a real threat in the Belmont. 

but the key to Commanding Curve's  great performance is a combination of factors.. (1) he is a horse for course...6 races he has run, 3 or which were at Churchill.  he has 1 win from those 6 races..at Churchill...a second and a third are the other 2 races at Churchill. all last year.

this year off the lay off he runs 6 in the Risen Star.. in a field of 14.  and his last race second off lay-off he indicates great form by running third in the Louisiana Derby.  both these races are graded stake races.  so the Derby is his third race off the lay off..usually a big race in horses cycle... he was set up for a great race on his favourite track.

another key is they got Bridgemohan to ride..his winning rider.

Commanding Curve therefore had to be included in all Triactors, supers etc.

all of that I had down but under-rated Commanding Curves class.  I knew he could not win but I should have played him for second.

anyhow I did not loose covered by the win bet on CC.  but I will get them for the Preakness.  and the belmont!  I will give Doorsra the winners if he pays up front
::LOL:: ::LOL:: ::LOL:: ::LOL::

a lot of free handicapping tips here.

big race but the the basic handicapping approaches are valid for all races big or small.  form, class, trainers, riders, horse for course, horse for distance, speed match-up and how it sets up the race, post position etc..all as usual.

by these it was clear that Chrome and Danza were the only horses in with chances to win...as well as Wicked Strong, whose chances were compromised by his post position lack of early speed to get into a good position from which to launch his late kick.  and indeed his late kick as measured in his win in the Wood Memorial was slow. 

and Commanding Curve with his great form who was clearly sitting on a good race at his fave track