2015 Kentucky Derby

this years-2015, Derby is going to be much harder from a pedigree point of view. there are 13 horses at least by my count, with pedigrees capable of winning the Derby.

means of form and fitness, as well as trainer and rider are going to be of importance in separating out the pretenders from the contenders.

Pedigree is crucial in figuring out the horse that can make the 1 and a quarter distance at first asking. these 13 all can make the distance by pedigree. indeed they all appear capable of making the distance by breeding.  its the quality f the breeding..and the nuances of breeding that is also going to help separate them

International star
Its  Knockout
Ocho, Ocho Ocho
Mr Z
War Story
Tencendur
Stanford
Madefromlucky
Far Right
all these appear to be second tier due to being beaten in the prep races by some of the top contenders, qualifying with lesser points earned and lack of winning profiles.

El Kabeir
Upstart
Dortmund
Frosted
a middle group that is full of pedigree power..especially Frosted, who may be maturing  right now and able to fill out his pedigree potential (PP) by wins on the field going forward.

Materiality is full of PP but his foundation is suspect having no 2014 preps.  he may not be ready

Dortmund has a winning profile but while his PP says he can make the distance others will make it better than he.

El Kabeir and Upstart have been well beaten at least twice by the top candidates in prelims

the big boys, ready to go appear to be

International Star
Carpe Diem
American Pharoah
Mubtaahij

American Pharoah, Carpe Diem and Mubtaahij appear to have very, very strong PP power and winning records to match. and lots of foundation for running 10 2014 as well as recent prep races.

all things being equal, at this point, the winner comes from those 3..followed by International Star just a step behind.

but there are a few in the mix with good trainers and riders, who can target the race and be trained to absolutely readiness with no one paying attention, capable of winning on the day...who can come out on the day and beat all these

punters are going to have to be especially watchful in this race.  it can easily come out different to all popular scenarios

i pick Mubtaahij

like yuh pick yuh las' comment on my 101 thread ::LOL:: ::LOL:: ::LOL:: ::LOL:: ::LOL::

Lixx fuh Mubthajji  :-[

you see...I pik Pharoah here and to try something else at the track trying for big odds