Lookin' At Belmont 2017

I don't know man.  I shud have cleaned up that race early.  that race shud have given me no  problems at all
but I have been in a slump and I have been second guessing myself.

I have been so incredibly good for so  long I now fear to be wrong..as if I  am not human.  but racing is a huge game and I can be wrong.  no matter how good a handicapper is he needs luck too..and good health and focus

I knew L Lee wud not run well at Belmont..hot day, dry fast track...I still effed around with him fearful he wud hurt my super.  same with the other closers..save patch who has some pedigree power and good form.  also lightly raced with room to improve..upside.

same way I allowed Twisted Tom/Castellano and Chad Brown to freak me out. I shud have tossed that dam horse right away.  Twisted Tom was a major case of Chad Brown reaching way out, totally over confident..seeking to  do the impossible because he felt like god..at least for a day.

Multiplier was a different story.  he had run some good races with high Byers/ability times pointing upwards.  his pedigree is sprint but he had routed successfully to that point.  he had to be considered in the race.

I knew Gormly would not win the race but he was an excellent exotics factor because he had pace and the pedigree to last the mile and a half

and to be totally honest...I am second-guessing myself also because I am having sugar problems that cause me to make mistakes, to miss things, to miscalculate.

simple things like placing a bet and forgetting to click confirm at the end.  I think I won money and when I go into my account its not there.  its not... so what the phuck happened. ::confused::

retracing I find that I did not not confirm the bet.  I get angry at myself and it gets  worse

that is one reason I go to the track at times... because the mistakes are less there..the machines do not require as many confirmation clicks as the dam computer, playing at at home.

as a player of horses its good to have a good memory..especially for this purpose right here:  here is a graded stakes turf race and a horse wins it and pays 57 dollars to win.  not very usual dat.

but look at the horse:  it had never raced in graded stakes company, but has a decent turf pedigree..that cud be excellent pedigree if he managed to get all that's in his bloodlines. 

he is 5 years old and had begun to win seriously up to that race... so he was in great form. he is a late developer from smaller tracks mostly. he had run in new york previously but at Aqueduct..not Belmont.

the trainer Graham Motion stuck him in that stakes race above, for which he had qualified by his recent wins.  Motion put one of the hottest and best riders around, on his back..Jose Ortiz.  yet few noticed.

this is what one must remember so that when one sees it again by Motion or by any trainer, they can profit handsomely by placing a decent bet on the horse

a handicapper must remember that some horses are good early and some develop later.  one must remember the signs of a developing horse..the age of the horse and what it is doing on the track at the time.
when trainers have such a horse they will stick it in the most unlikely places.  everyone dismisses these horses asking..'what the hell is Motion/or any trainer using the opportunity'... up to now ::confused::

and it is an opportunity more than it is a tactic for it is not everyday a trainer will have an aging, but yet late developing race horse on his hands

that is what happened in that race above with the #5 horse that beat my #1 horse. I ram smack into that race and did not see how the race was developing.

well..a handicapper must see whats going on to win races.  and when he sees what he has experienced building up again, he must remember..so that he can profit

Gormley mekk Patch beat him to 3rd place.

I lost again

I normally like the Malibu Moon runners but thia Gormly isnt all that good.  he wont the Santa Anita derby..a mile and an eight in 1:51.  that is a very slow time man. 

and there was no good reason for that slow pace.  it was dry and fast. by contrast IWC ran 1:50:4 at Aqueduct which is a very slow track .

Multiplier ran a mile and an eight in the Illinois derby in 1:47:4.  the Chicago tracks are as slow as the New York tracks yet deh ran faster than Gormly in California at lightening fast Santa Anita

I could not have confidence in Gormly.  he was way too slow