Planning beyond Hugo Chavez By Sir Ronald Sanders

Hugo Chavez, the populist leader of Venezuela, could not turn-up on January 10 for his swearing-in ceremony as President for a fourth consecutive term.  Quite naturally, the doubt that this has created over the governance of Venezuela has thrown the country into turmoil.  It has also caused alarm among Caribbean governments that have become dependent on discounted oil and concessionary financing under the Venezuelan-financed Petro-Caribe programme.

The question on everyone’s mind is: what will happen with Chavez’s policies domestically, regionally and internationally, and how will change affect them?
What is certain is that there will be change whoever succeeds Chavez, who is very ill in Cuba after undergoing surgery four times for cancer.

For the time being, the Venezuelan Supreme Court has ruled that Chavez’s swearing-in ceremony can be postponed.  This means that, effectively, his party remains in power with him as the nominal President while the government is run by the Vice President he named before his last surgery. The Vice President is Foreign Minister, Nicolas Maduro.

There is a huge constitutional debate in Venezuela not only about whether the Chavez government can continue without his taking the oath-of-office, but also over who should be the Acting President.  Lawmakers have argued that the constitution says the Speaker of the National Assembly should be in charge.  The Speaker is Diosdado Cabello who is also a member of Chavez’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela and who appears to have accepted that the government continues with Maduro in charge.