The Queens Plate

did you notice the lil tweak in my betting ::confused:: ::confused::

for the Belmont I bet commissioner in full confidence he would win or come second.

Tonalist was the horse to beat and I have to let you in on another lil tweak!  I knew Tonalist was the horse to beat because he fit all the requirements:  form and fitness, pedigree for the distance and for class, trainer/rider combination and winning profile..he was a lightly raced horses that had won most of his races

on the other hand Commissioner had race 10 times and had own just twice.  but had some good Belmont experience and a dynamite pedigree that fit the distance even better than Tonalist.  Commissioner also had form and was ready to run a big race.  you could see it in his running lines.  and the KEY WAS THE SWITCH OF RIDERS TO  J J CASTELLANO, THE TOP RIDER IN THE STATES.

tonalist was the better horse and that was reflected in his odds 8/1.  he had the winning profile and was ready.  but so was Comissioner and at 28/1 there was nutten to lose. if he won you getting 60 dollars for a 2 dollar bet.  and if he ran second he pays better than the winner still.

so look at this:  I get 36 dollars for the place and show...and for the winner of the race..for win/place/shoe 29 dollars and change.

same with yesterday:  I get 9.70 and 5.80 for the place and show which was more than the got for the win/place/show on Lexie Lou

all you have to do is to bet the most likely winner where it counts...in triactors/exactors/superfectors.

but you bet like I do only when you have a bona fide upset possibility.  you dont do it every time, just like that.

like I went over the pedigrees of all those horses so I knew in all probability what they all had to offer.  which is why I had no confidence in the favourite We Miss Artie.  that horse has no real class from its breeding.  Artie Schiller was a very good grass horse... not a great one. 

but my horse..Ami's Holiday.. the#15.. has class breeding in spades, a lil light for route running on top but strong on the bottom for stamina.  and horses inherit stamina mostly from their mothers..the bottom half of their pedigree. 

I knew Ami's Holiday race well yesterday, likel win the race..that he had it in him to do so.. and when you see they put Contreras the top Woodbine rider on him.. then then its a go

yes chairman!  there is a Canadian Triple Crown.  the next leg is the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie around the end of this month.

the third leg will be the Breeders cup in August! the Breeders cup is run on Grass.

and for that race a few other horses come into prominence..especially Heart to Heart.  yesterdays favourite We Miss Artie will also be prominent because his breeding is very much more for grass than anything else

but here is the trick:  the Queens Plate winner..Ketchim's horse Lexie Lou, is even better bred for grass than she is for the main tract.. which are usually dirt or artificial turf.

so far Heart to Heart looks to be the one to beat her on the grass but I am still watching at others.

AND FOR THE PRINCE OF WALES AT FORT ERIE..A SHORTER RACE THAN THE QUEENS PLATE IF I REMEMBER RIGHT LOOK OUT FOR MY HORSE FROM YESTERDAY..AMI'S HOLIDAY.. TO BE RIGHT THERE AGAIN FOR THE WIN.

I have to check the distance of the Prince of Wales..it could be a mile and a half.  if it is a mile and a half count out Ami's Holiday.  I don't think he can go that far.  but if its shorter than a mile and a quarter look out!!
::LOL:: ::LOL:: ::LOL::

Was that poly-sumting artificial turf yesterday at Woodbine !

you should write " Ketchim's Filly Lexie Lou " 

I backing she for the Triple.

Its a woman's wurl  ;D

OK KETCHIM!  THE PRINCE OF WALES IS A MILE AND 3/16..SHORTER THAN THE QP by 1/16.  THATS ENUFF!

look out for my bwoy a-Holiday, to jooomp all over your filly

Folks ,

which other SPORT can you find a Female RUNNING against a Male ?

.....and beating de crap outta dem ?