Kentucky Derby!! HELP!!!!!!!

Ramsammy just cost me at least a place position here..5 race at woodbine..with a very stupid ride indeed.

in the one slot..and the last to load how in the hell cud Ramsammy cud be caught sleeping in the friggin gate...then had to make up ground..leaving the horse with nothing late

that Ramsammy bwoy.  that guy is the most frustrating impse riding at Woodbine.  I will not count on the skunt again.  he is getting worse

this year the Derby is tuff, tuff, tuff!  lots and lots of very good horses, well bred and likely full of talent. there are all manner of scenarios involved.

we cud have big upset in this saturday....lots of money to win for those who can figure it out.  I need to make a spread sheet

at this point I am tossing 7 horses from contention for all parts of the win/Exactor/Tri/Super:

Mr Z
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Bolo
Keen Ice
Frammento
Bold Conquest

these horse were comprehensively beaten all through the prep races and are unlikely to develop in the meantime to challenge for any part of the Derby money next Saturday

of the rest:

Carpe Diem and International Star ran dynamite races and look to be top contenders on performance.

Dortmund also is right behind these 2

Materiality and American Pharoah are horses with dynamite pedigrees. they both ran some super races which suggest both have much upside and can contend for the win... but they may not be fully seasoned for the mile and a quarter Derby.  but they cannot be written off for the win anytime soon..maybe by thursday

Danzig Moon ran a dynamite race losing to Carpe Diem which race suggests he is on a development line and could be better by Derby day, fighting for the win. this very solid horse by pedigree should be in for some part of the money

Far Right, Firing Line, Frosted,  Stanford are all contenders for some part of the money at this stage..even for the win.

Upstart not for the win but for exotic plays.

itsaknockout has a very good pedigree for the distance that should have resulted in a top place contending for the win. but this horse has lost all its races up to the Derby but scored enough points to be in the race.  its a puzzle at the moment how to handle this horse.  I don't want to be sooprised by him on the day

the forriner from Dubai is Mubtaahij with a pedigree that can win the race.  he must be carefully considered if he runs

phew!  a few too many really good looking horses this year..all with pedigrees that can make the distance of the race easily... and, all things being equal contend for the win

Mubtaahij bloodline is Dubai Millenium  .....

American Pharaoh

Speed is good but distance ..

dubai millenium was a very very god horse but the key for me in a pedigree is if a sire is passing on his genes.....same with a dam.

Dubai Millenium's son Dubawi is Mubtaahij's sire and by all accounts he is dynamite between the sheets.  here is a progeny list of Dubawi's offspring.


now this list is not the full list..just what this data base offers for free. they charge a lot of money for the precise figures and expert analysis which I will not  pay...so I must make up with my own analysis of the available data.


anytime a horse earns more than 100K USD he is a successful horse to me/same way if he earns 5k or more per start he is also a successful horse. I have made such approximations based on the costs of the game I know..and the fact that all trainers/owners must make profits or go bankrupt..get out of the game.  I am happy with my own analysis. 
there is also the simple fact that I have no idea if information that requires fees represents accurate tabulation of facts meticulously gathered.  I can and do gather facts of my own freely available from racing forms and actual experience of races that I attend are accurate.  and from that I belive 100K and 5K are good approximations

www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/dubawi

this is a list of Dubawi's progeny..which includes Mubtaahij.  from this list it is easy to see based on my standards that Dubawi is passing on his genes in spades.. and that Mubtaahig can really run. 

all things being equal Mubtaahig can win the Kentucky Derby on Saturday May 2, 2015 from his fathers side alone.  but his dam is also important and I will look at her now

www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/dubawi

www.pedigreequery.com/mubtaahij

this is Mubtaahijs full pedigree line-up back 4 generations as well as his dams list of progeny.  Pennegale shows 5 foals to get to the races of which 4 won, broke their maidens..3 of which have been big winners including Mubtaahij.

so the dam..dams are reputed to pass on stamina to their young...is passing on her genes as well. so mister Mubtaahij is well bred indeed and can put in winning run.  now if he is acclamated, fit  and happy on Saturday he is one who must be considered.

that is what appears to be a serious fact against him..acclamation and history.  the sheiks do not win the KD.  they have never won it in years and years of trying.  there is always a first but we will see