Kentucky Derby!! HELP!!!!!!!

here is American Pharoah Ketchim.....(AP)

www.pedigreequery.com/mubtaahij

AP is out of Pioneer of the Nile who is a young Sire out of Empire Maker who won the Belmont.  Pioneer of the Nile himself Ran second in the Derby and won a  bunch of Graded stakes races.
AP's dam sire is Yankee Gentleman out  the Storm Cat Northern Dancer line..one of the best lines in all of horse racing. no problem for a mile and a quarter to mile and a half there
and AP's dam appears to be passing on the genes of that great line.  there is only one problem and that is Yankee Gentleman's himself..his own class as a race horse coming from that great line.  he wasn't all that good..which makes AP a lil suspect to me
I will have a better idea of how I am going to play American Pharoah after I measure his races by Wednesday. his races look really good to the eye.  however the answer may be in the ability times can devise for him compared to the others

KETCHIM!!!!!!

focus on the #1 horse in here on the rail. follow him come up the rail and get blocked in the stretch, accelerate though a small gap between horses, switch 4-wide and run away from the field.

that is International Star who should be the favourite for the Derby on Saturday.

for the slow fairgrounds race track, 1:43 seconds a mile and onE sixteenth is really really good.  that could translate into 1:41 seconds on a fast Churchill downs

now look at American Pharoah in the mud.  Espinoza does not do anything but urge the horse by hand movements...no whip!

now that's a class ride there.

American Pharoah again...April 11 Arkansas Derby.  an eve better prformance. he is the main speed in the Derby

sweet ! ...International Star same jockey for Kentucky ?

that was well run !

now here is Materiality..very well bred horse but this Florida Derby is slow...a mile and 1 eight in 1:52.



MATERIALITY HAD NO PREP RACES IN 2014.  HE GOES INTO THE DERBY WITH 3 2015 RACES UNDER HIS BELT. THE LAST TIME SUCH A HOSE WON THE KENTUCKY DERBY WAS IN 1882...133 YEARS AGO

don't know yet who will ride IS on Saturday

THE rISEN sTAR AT FAIRGROUNDS  fEBRUARY 21 2015...mORE (IS) iNTERNATIONAL sTAR

lOUSIANA dERBY mARCH 28 2015  iNTERNATIONAL sTAR AGAIN

HIS jOCKET mIGUEL mENA SHOULD BE ON HIM IN THE dERBY

pay attention to the battle between IS and Stanford Ketchim. that Stanford can do even better in the Derby as he has run into full form in this race.  so already by form Stanford and Danzig moon will be prominent in the Derby due to their prep race performances and Pedigree

the main speed competition for American Pharoah...Dortmund!

Carper Diem!

More big speed for the Derby but this guy has what they call positional speed or stalking speed

note the big, improved performance by Danzig Moon in the Blue Gras.  that makes him one to watch in the derby...along with the top contenders..Danzig Moon and Stanford

the Wood Memorial and frosted......

Frosted does not have a winning profile..a seconditis horse..the type of horse that does not like to win save where they have won before.... usually at the same track where they first won.

Frosted is a New York horse. in 7 races he has won races only in New York.  chances are that is where he will again and nowhere else. but Frosted does have a pedigree to die for,  very very good indeed. like Danzig Moon and Stanford he is a contender for exotics... but less than those 2 who can actually win the Kentucky Derby, Frosted seems to have no chance of that